Nick Savvides, Europe correspondent

Credit: Pixabay

Average global box freight rates collapsed 10% week-on-week, according to Drewry Shipping Consultant’s latest weekly rates report as capacity and demand head in opposite directions.

In its latest market report Drewry Shipping Consultant analyst Simon Heaney said that global growth will moderate to 1.8% this year, while last year saw another record for contracting, at 4.8 million teu, taking the orderbook to over 11 million teu about one third of active cellular fleet.

“Deliveries of container ships were on average, approximately 180,000 teu per month [in 2025], while demolitions in their entirety only amounted to 6,000 teu over the entire year,” said Heaney.

According to Drewry’s weekly World Container Index (WCI) spot rates in the two biggest trades were down substantially. Out of Asia to the US West and East Coasts were down 12% and 11%, respectively, to $2,546 per feu and $3,191 per feu. In the European market, spot rates were down 9% to North Europe at $2,510 per feu and 8% to the Mediterranean at $3,520 per feu.

Lunar New Year will begin in around four weeks’ time, 17 February, and that will have a substantial effect on volumes, both ahead of the holiday and after.

Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey said: “Since 2022, the pattern has been a noticeable downturn in rates around this time of year [SCFI]. Furthermore, they have tended to last a couple of months at least before recovering later in the year, given that recent history, this current downturn is not out of character.”

The SCFI was down 7.4% on Friday compared to the previous week at 1457.86 points.

However, Wadey, like Drewry, also pointed to the impact of the capacity overhang which is affecting what is now a settled container market, in that all the tonnage necessary for the Cape of Good Hope diversions, avoiding the Suez Canal, has now been absorbed and any new deliveries are excess capacity.

“The cumulative effect of consistent and substantial new vessel deliveries since 2022, with virtually no scrapping, sees a market exhibiting standard behaviour, even with sailings being cancelled – some already being announced – this background context would still result in substantial overcapacity. Such a situation would put further legs into any, temporary, downturn,” said Wadey.

According to Dynamar the market is behaving “atypically with volatility the norm,” and there may be major spot rate fluctuations, and these “Will have implications for supply chain planning and stability”.

Xeneta’s weekly spot rate index shows less dramatic percentage decreases, but with similar average spot rates in dollar terms, broadly speaking. However, Month-on-month capacity increases are up in all three major trades, Asia to the US and Mediterranean by between 9.7 and 12.3%. Asia to North Europe capacity is down 1.9% on the month, most likely due to congestion in these ports, And the Transatlantic has seen a 6.4% decrease in offered capacity.

Nick Savvides

seatrade-maritime.com