The fragile peace framework governing the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed in all but name, with US and Iranian forces exchanging fresh military strikes over the weekend even as diplomats prepare to meet in Doha on Tuesday to salvage what remains of a ceasefire that neither side appears willing to fully honour.

The immediate trigger was an Iranian drone strike on the Panama-flagged oil tanker Kiku on June 27 as it transited the strait carrying two million barrels of crude from Qatar’s Al Shaheen Offshore Terminal bound for Fujairah. The attack damaged the vessel’s bridge at around 08:00 UTC, though all crew were reported safe with no environmental damage observed. It was the second attack on a commercial vessel within 48 hours, following a drone strike on the containership Ever Lovely on June 25 as it passed through the strait’s southern shipping corridor.

US Central Command responded with strikes on Iranian military targets including surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defence sites, drone storage facilities and minelayer capabilities, saying Iran had been “given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated with a joint missile and drone operation against eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both Gulf states denounced the attacks. No significant damage or US casualties were reported.

The exchanges exposed the near-total breakdown of the 14-point memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan less than two weeks ago. That agreement was meant to halt hostilities between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, reopen the strait to commercial shipping, and begin 60-day negotiations on deeper issues including Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington subsequently waived sanctions on Tehran. Since then the situation has deteriorated sharply.

Posting on Truth Social on Saturday, president Trump warned that “there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started,” adding that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist” if that point is reached.

Iran’s position on the strait itself has hardened into a source of serious long-term concern. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any attempt by ships to bypass Iran’s preferred routing corridor near its own shores would “increase tensions” and delay the reopening of the waterway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said vessels violating their traffic control measures would be dealt with “more firmly than before.” Mohammad Mokhber, adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, wrote on X that as long as Iran managed the strait, Washington’s “hegemonic dreams in the region will not be realised.”

The routing dispute is becoming a structural flashpoint. Oman announced an alternative transit corridor hugging its own shoreline, developed in conjunction with the IMO, which infuriated Tehran.

Oman has separately informed European partners that shipping through the strait is unlikely to return to pre-conflict arrangements, with potential fees for navigational assistance and other maritime services under consideration.

French president Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to meet Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq in Paris, with Hormuz maritime security expected to feature prominently on the agenda.

Despite the flare-up in recent days, merchant shipping has proven once again to be remarkably resilient. Signal Ocean AIS showed seven tankers exited the strait and five entered yesterday.

Sam Chambers