With new tariffs putting pressure on international trade, the National Retail Federation today, August 8, issued its outlook for U.S. imports, projecting they will finish 2025 down 5.6 percent or 1.4 million TEU lower than last year. After having adjusted its outlook several times this year as tariffs were announced and delayed, the retailers’ trade group has now stabilized its outlook, projecting monthly declines starting in August and sharp declines in the fall.

The group highlights that retail imports for the first half of the year totaled 12.53 million TEUs at the major U.S. ports, which, despite the uncertainty, was up 3.6 percent year-over-year. Now, the NRF notes that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have begun to go into effect along with the first trade agreements. While a few major agreements remain to be reached, the group believes the patterns have settled into the market.

“Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

The group projects that volumes spiked back to 2.2 million TEU in July and will remain high at 2.3 million TEU in August as retailers rush to get inventory. Front-loading was especially important as the U.S. and China agreed to a pause due to expire in August.

Ben Hacker of Hacker Associates expects a downturn in trade volumes by late September. Inventories for the end-of-year holidays, he projects, will already be in warehouses. He notes U.S. exporters will also be left with unsold products as the reciprocal tariffs go into effect in other countries.

U.S. import volumes for the last four months are projected to be down between approximately 19 to 21 percent per month. The NRF forecasts volumes of between approximately 1.7 and 1.8 million TEU per month. This is significantly below the levels, which were around 2.2 million TEU per month last year.

The NRF’s preliminary estimate for all of 2025 is imports of 24.1 million TEU at the major U.S. container ports. This compares with 25.5 million TEUs last year and returns toward pre-pandemic levels.

maritime-executive.com