Iran and the United States have established a direct communication channel to avoid incidents and miscommunication in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar and Pakistan announced on Monday following the first round of high-level talks under the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding at the Lake Lucerne Summit in Burgenstock, Switzerland.

The joint statement said talks were held in a “positive and constructive atmosphere” and produced “encouraging progress,” including a roadmap aimed at securing a final agreement within 60 days. The communication line is tied to paragraph five of the MOU, under which Iran committed to facilitating safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait without transit fees for the 60-day negotiation period. The memorandum states that “the traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start,” and requires Iran to begin demining operations within 30 days.

Looking beyond the temporary arrangement, the MOU envisages Iran entering dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the strait in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states. Clouding the Hormuz picture yesterday, Iran’s lead negotiator stated: “Everyone should know that the administration of the strait will never return to the way it was before the war.” The administration of the strait will never return to the way it was before the war

However, following Iranian talks with Oman, Oman’s foreign minister said: “We affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free passage.”

The diplomatic progress, however, has done little to resolve the operational picture on the water. Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing military sources, reported that the strait remained closed and that the IRGC Navy was not issuing transit permits, describing the move as a response to Israel’s continued attacks in Lebanon and US failure to implement the ceasefire agreement fully.

HSBC cautioned clients this week that shipping normalisation will lag the news flow. “We expect shipping normalisation to lag pending a durable settlement, mine clearance and lower insurance costs,” the bank said.

HSBC said inventory rebuilding should provide medium-term support, adding that any easing of Iranian sanctions would boost demand for compliant tonnage, drawing a parallel with Venezuelan crude flows.

BRS, in its weekly tanker newsletter, described the situation as a “false start”. The broker noted that once the strait was declared open last week, traffic rose steadily to its highest level since the closure at end-February, with outbound tanker traffic exceeding inbound as vessels stranded in the Middle East Gulf rushed to leave. Nineteen tankers above 34,000 dwt exited over the weekend while five entered, before Tehran’s closure announcement slowed traffic to a trickle. BRS said the weekend’s events were viewed as a blip given the apparent success of Monday’s talks and Washington’s stiff rebuking of Israel, and anticipated that traffic would swiftly return to end-of-last-week levels once the status of Hormuz was clarified.

On ballasters, BRS said last week’s events had encouraged a significant diversion of tonnage toward the region. Many VLCCs voyaging in the southern Indian Ocean abruptly changed course northward, and ship tracking data suggested these units were now amassing off the Omani coast awaiting clearance. A higher proportion of VLCCs exiting the Strait of Malacca after discharging in Asia were also signalling for the Middle East rather than the Atlantic. Western owners, however, with the notable exception of Greek operators, were largely still directing ships to lifting zones outside the region.

Sam Chambers